April mortgage rates forecast
In March, the trajectory of mortgage rates humbled forecasters.

In order to explain April mortgage rates we must first dive into how the market has been performing in the last few months. Mortgage rates fell in late February as the COVID-19 pandemic spread. The forecast for March seemed logical: Mortgage rates would continue falling if the epidemic worsened in the United States.

Instead, mortgage rates went up dramatically in March. This happened mostly because of the rush of refinances that occurred during February. There was more demand for the product than there was supply.

The forecast for April calls for fixed mortgage rates to fall below the levels seen in March, as the Fed restores stability.

The Fed clearly intends to steady mortgage rates. If it succeeds, the 30-year mortgage could settle at around 3.5% or lower through April, giving more homeowners an opportunity to refinance. Low and steady rates would please home buyers, too — many of whom are shopping via virtual house tours during the epidemic.

Fed steadies mortgage rates

The Federal Reserve can’t increase lenders’ capacity to process loan applications, but it has tools to stop the cycle of falling bond prices. Bond pricing relates to mortgage in a big way as the investors who supply mortgages use bond markets to determine how safe or risky investments are. The central bank’s first effort was March 15, when it pledged to buy at least $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. In just one week they bought nearly $100 billion. They moved quickly to negate the trend of growing rates in the market.

Round two began March 23, when the Fed announced that it would spend as much money on mortgage-backed securities as necessary “to support smooth market functioning.”

The Fed has shown that it will buy astonishing quantities of mortgage bonds to bring stability to mortgage rates. It seems a safe guess that rates will steady, but during unprecedented times, there is never 100% certainty.

What are the current Rates?

As you most likely know, rates vary dependent on your credit and income stability. That being said, one can expect around a 3.5 interest rate this week. As mentioned earlier in the article, it seems like rates are stabilizing around this number.

This morning’s ADP Employment showed a loss of 27k jobs. Forecasts called for a loss of 150k jobs compared to last month’s report that was strongly positive at +183k.
Normally, when ADP or NFP job counts beat their forecast by more than 100k jobs, it’s enough to prompt at least a little bit of bond market weakness (i.e. higher rates), even in the recent era where jobs counts weren’t that big of a deal. And it’s a big deal for me to say ADP/NFP are not a big deal because they have historically been very big deals. In fact, there is no bigger deal in the economic data world than NFP (the non-farm payrolls component of the big jobs report).
If it hasn’t been a big deal for the past however many years, it’s because the labor market has been so stable and strong. Almost all payroll counts have fallen in a range between 126k and 278k since 2010! The only major exception was a stint of time spent closer to 300k in 2014-2015. With no visible deterioration in a decade, there hasn’t been much reason for markets to react to jobs numbers.
As the current recession unfolds, jobs counts will be very important once again as they will help measure the depth and duration of the pain. I’ve been reminding you about that here and there for several years now as the economic expansion grew older and older (and thus closer and closer to the next contraction).
Now the next contraction is here, to say the least. Yet here we are with no reaction to the data.
The reason is twofold. On a more superficial note, this is as simple as ADP going out of their way to point out that more pain is coming. In other words, the data doesn’t yet reflect the new reality. That part is easy enough to understand, but how do we reconcile -27k with the 3.3 million jobless claims from last week and forecasts for another 3m+ tomorrow?
Simple! Both ADP and NFP focus on a certain week of the month. NFP states it’s the week that contains the 12th of the month, generally, and ADP’s stated goal is to emulate/predict the 2nd revision of the NFP number. As such, it’s no surprise to see ADP explicitly reminding us that the current report relied on data collected through March 12th.
And what hadn’t happened by that week? That’s right! The massive increase in joblessness was only a twinkle in the eye of the recession monster. Jobless Claims reported on March 19th (for the week ending March 13th) were only 281k. While that was up sharply from a recent average under 220k, it did almost nothing to represent the move to 3.283 million claims the following week.
That brings us to the second reason that today’s data doesn’t matter. Simply put, we’re not dealing with a gradual slide into recession where jobs numbers can help us identify a shift. We’re dealing with the biggest and sharpest shift into a recession in history. It’s well-understood that any jobs number that isn’t showing that simply hasn’t caught up yet. Jobs data will be much more informative after it’s clearly bottomed out and can then tell us something about how people are being REHIRED, as opposed to laid off.

On a different note, if interested in learning about refinancing your home for whatever reason give us a call. We are happy to help and will make sure that we only act in your best interest during these troubling times.

Use Megastar’s mortgage calculator to compare your own loan scenarios:

• See what happens when you input different mortgage terms (in years or months).
• Reveal the amortization schedule to see how much total interest you would pay.

Good credit can save you lots of money on your mortgage.

GO TO MORTGAGE CALCULATOR

GO TO REFINANCE FORM

If refinancing will save you money, help you build equity and pay off your mortgage faster, it’s a good decision. And with rates as low as they’ve been in quite a while, even people who have fairly new mortgages may benefit from refinancing.

When Is It a Good Idea to Refinance Your Mortgage?

If you can lower your interest rate over 1/3 of a percentage, it is a good idea to call your professional to refinance. 1/3 of a percentage will save you a ton of money in interests and also may reduce your payment.

Mortgage interest rates are determined by market factors, including the yields on long-term Treasury bonds. The best rates and terms go to those with the best credit. So the question of when to refinance is not just about interest rates; it’s about your credit being good enough to qualify for the right refinance loan. Look at your credit relative to when you last financed your home. Maybe your credit score is not as high as you’d like it to be; so long as it is similar to or even slightly higher than the last time you refinanced, you can likely benefit from a refinance in the current market.

Your financial goals, how long you plan to stay in your home, how much equity you have in the home and your overall financial condition are important considerations when it comes to refinancing. Luckily, at Megastar our trusted professionals will help you to make that decision. We are not out for a quick buck – we just want to help people reach their financial goals.

Is Refinancing Worth It and How Does Refinancing Work?

There are a variety of ways to refinance your mortgage. Finding the right loan depends on your goals. You may want to switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate loan that has a steady monthly payment. With rates as low as they are right now, locking into a fixed mortgage is a great way to ensure that your mortgage payment stays consistently low. You may want to shorten the term of your loan from a 30-year to a 15-year and save yourself a bundle in interest charges. This is a great option if it makes sense for you. Megastar has helped people cut 10 years off of their mortgage payment without increasing their monthly payment more than $100!

A refi is also a way to get rid of private mortgage insurance after you have reached 20 percent equity in your home. PMI’s can be a hassle and quickly turn a $1,400 payment into a $1,600 one. We can help you workout a plan to get rid of those pesky PMIs while keeping you at an affordable rate.

What Is a Cash-Out Mortgage Refinance?

Other homeowners go with a cash-out refinance, in which they borrow more than they owe on the home and use the cash  to retire credit card debt, pay for home renovations or some other major expense.

Wiping out credit card balances with a lower-interest loan can be a good move. But if you start racking up card balances again, you’re setting yourself back and increasing your risk. Your mortgage is a debt secured by your home. If you start missing mortgage payments, you could lose your home to foreclosure.

How Long Does It Take to Refinance a Mortgage?

The time it takes to refinance depends on your lender as well as how long it takes to complete inspections, appraisals, credit checks and other requirements. But the internet has greatly simplified the process. Megastar often waives appraisal fees to expedite the process.

Use Megastar’s mortgage calculator to compare your own loan scenarios:

• See what happens when you input different mortgage terms (in years or months).
• Reveal the amortization schedule to see how much total interest you would pay.

Good credit can save you lots of money on your mortgage.

GO TO MORTGAGE CALCULATOR

GO TO REFINANCE FORM